Four real elections and a sandbox. Drag the vote, watch 120 seats fall, and try to build 61. Positions are live from Tayyar.
—largest party
0right + religious
0the rest
61
Election night · 27 October
The final count
Final count: 5,697,290 votes from 12,884 ballot boxes · committee figures as of 19:20
Count · ~100% of votes
534819
Kan 11
505317
N12
505218
Channel 13
505317
CoalitionChangeArab61
Party
Seatsif it stopped here
Count% of valid votes
Kan 11exit poll
N12exit poll
Channel 13exit poll
Likud
27
20.51
25
24
25
Yashar!
21
16.06
21
22
23
Together
12
9.33
14
12
14
Joint List
11
8.80
10
11
10
The Democrats
8
6.44
10
9
9
Raʿam
8
5.92
7
7
7
Yisrael Beiteinu
7
5.93
8
9
7
Otzma Yehudit
7
5.74
7
7†
6†
UTJ
7
5.50
6
7
7
Shas
6
5.26
6
6
6
Religious Zionism–Zehut
6
5.09
6
6
6
The Reservists
·
2.72
·
·
·
Amcha Yisrael
·
1.68
·
·
·
Haredi Public
·
0.19
·
·
·
Blue & White
·
0.00
·
·
·
Other lists
·
0.82
Seats are what the votes counted so far would give under the real rules: the 3.25% threshold on all valid votes, D’Hondt, and the five surplus-vote agreements. Places report at different speeds and the double-envelope votes (soldiers, diplomats, hospitals, prisons) are counted last, so the shares can still move a long way. The share counted is measured against the committee’s turnout at the close, 77.7%.
† N12, Channel 13: Otzma Yehudit’s figure is the channel’s Netanyahu-bloc total minus its four other lists; the reports used do not state it.
Exit polls published at 22:00, as reported: Kan 11, N12, Channel 13.
Count: Central Elections Committee, votes26.bechirot.gov.il. Final results are published in the official gazette by 4 November and may change until then.
Kingmakers · on the final count
Roads to 61
Seats from the committee’s count as of 19:20. Every number here moves with the count.
Everyone drew red lines during the campaign, and the way I read them, they leave nobody at 61 on this count. The change bloc has ruled out the Haredi parties over the draft and, at least for now, the Arab lists too. Lieberman won’t sit with the Arab lists at all, Raʿam won’t sit with Likud, and Ben-Gvir and Smotrich won’t sit with Raʿam. Not much survives all that, and what does is priced below on the count as it stands, with a button that builds it in the machine.
Where the red lines leave everyone
Netanyahu’s bloc53 seats · 8 short
Change bloc48 seats · 13 short
Arab lists19 seats
Neither bloc gets to 61 without crossing a line it drew itself. Netanyahu’s bloc is short, and every list that could close the gap either refuses to sit with the Haredi parties or is an Arab list, which Ben-Gvir and Smotrich won’t sit with and which, in Raʿam’s case, won’t sit with Likud either. With Feiglin now running on Smotrich’s list, that bloc is also further right than the outgoing government, which took some doing. The change bloc has ruled out both groups that could carry it over. The Arab lists say they are willing, and for now nobody is taking them up on it.
Lieberman’s road
67a majority
Likud27Yashar!21Yisrael Beiteinu7Together12
The talk this week is that Lieberman has stopped taking the change bloc’s calls and wants Netanyahu and Eisenkot in one government, without the Haredi parties, the Arab lists or Ben-Gvir. Likud, Yashar! and Yisrael Beiteinu come to 55 on their own, so it needs Bennett’s Together as well. It has happened before, sort of: in 2013 Netanyahu governed with Lapid and Bennett and without the Haredi parties, and that government passed a draft law. The hard part is Netanyahu walking away from the Haredi parties and Ben-Gvir, and Eisenkot, who left Netanyahu’s emergency government in 2024, agreeing to go back in. Put Smotrich’s list in Together’s place and it comes to 61, with Eisenkot and Feiglin at the same table.
6 seats to spare, so no single seat still in play decides it.
The Arab lists are willing and the change bloc, for now, is not, which leaves the route Rabin took after 1992: keep the Arab parties out of the coalition and let them vote for the government from outside. Lieberman won’t be part of anything that leans on Arab votes, so this is the center-left without Yisrael Beiteinu, plus both Arab lists. A new government only needs more votes for than against, though, which hands Lieberman the decision from outside as well, and the two votes above are what that looks like on the count as it stands.
5,017 more votes for Shas would take a seat from Raʿam and put this road at 59.
Back to the ballot box
If no road clears its own red lines, the mandate goes around the room for a few months, the Knesset is dissolved and the country votes again, with Netanyahu as caretaker prime minister the whole time. Israel voted five times between April 2019 and November 2022, so of everything on this page, this is the least wild.
Seats on the edge
How many votes would move a seat, one list at a time, with every other list held where it is.
Party
Seats
Next seatvotes it needs · from
Last seatheld by · would go to
Raʿam
8
+44,603Yashar!
3,131Joint List
Joint List
11
+4,696Raʿam
37,305Shas
Shas
6
+5,017Raʿam
47,692Yisrael Beiteinu
Yashar!
21
+43,036Raʿam
11,320Shas
Religious Zionism–Zehut
6
+12,892Likud
30,197Shas
Likud
27
+42,639Raʿam
13,150Shas
UTJ
7
+29,326Raʿam
13,327Shas
Yisrael Beiteinu
7
+13,455Raʿam
37,318Shas
Together
12
+17,221Raʿam
24,829Yisrael Beiteinu
The Democrats
8
+25,100Yashar!
18,266Shas
Otzma Yehudit
7
+26,408Raʿam
20,065Shas
The Reservists: 2.72% on the final count. 30,973 more votes would have cleared 3.25% and brought in 4 seats, taken from Likud, Yashar! and Raʿam.
Load a scenario
How the government formed
The ballot
← Arab · leftreligious right →
61
0 / 120 in your coalition
The President consults
Who gets the mandate?
—formateur
0 / 61committed seats
42 mandate days left
Around the table
Portfolio demands, red lines, and the 28 + 14-day clock are a stylized, illustrative model of how the blocs bargain, not the official positions of any party or the President.
Probabilistic forecast · beta
If the election were today
Set each list’s expected vote, then run thousands of elections. Each is shaken by three correlated forces, a national left-right swing, a religious-secular swing, and Arab turnout, with each list’s exposure read from its own Tayyar positions, plus its own noise. For every simulated Knesset the machine asks who could really form 61 under the real coalition red lines, and how often each list is the one that decides.
✓ Calibrated on 63 final-week polls (2019–2022) · replayed on those four elections, the result fell inside its 5–95% band for 41 of 42 lists
0 elections simulated
Netanyahu campChange camp
Who can actually form a government?
Kingmakers · how often each list is decisive to a majority
Seats per list (median, with the 5th–95th-percentile range)
→
Polling now · the 8-poll picture
What the surveys say
Poll of polls · 11 Oct–16 Oct 2026
Yashar!22
Likud20
Together12
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Shas8
Joint List8
Otzma Yehudit8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Raʿam5
The Reservists4
Amcha Yisrael2
505713
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 50 and the non-Arab opposition at 57, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Poll of polls · 11 Oct–16 Oct 2026 · middle reading per party, so a house lean cannot drag it
Yashar!22
Likud20
Together13
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Joint List8
Otzma Yehudit8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Shas7
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Raʿam5
The Reservists4
Amcha Yisrael2
495813
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 49 and the non-Arab opposition at 58, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Party
MaarivLazar Research
N12Midgam
Channel 14Filber
Times of IsraelTatika Research & Media
Channel 13Midgam Project et al.
Kan 11Kantar
Channel 16Maagar Mochot
WallaLazar Research
Avg
Yashar!
21
23
20
26
20
22
21
22
21.9
Likud
18
20
29
20
18
20
18
20
20.4
Together
13
13
7
11
12
12
13
13
11.8
The Democrats
9
9
10
8
9
8
9
10
9
Joint List
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
8.1
Yisrael Beiteinu
8
9
5
9
9
8
7
9
8
Otzma Yehudit
8
8
7
7
8
9
9
8
8
UTJ
8
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
7.9
Shas
7
8
10
8
7
7
7
7
7.6
Religious Zionism–Zehut
6
6
7
6
6
5
6
6
6
Raʿam
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5.3
The Reservists
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4.1
Amcha Yisrael
4
·
·
·
4
4
4
·
2
Coalition
47
49
61
49
47
49
48
49
Opposition
59
58
46
58
58
58
59
58
Arab
14
13
13
13
15
13
13
13
At the 3.25% line Blue & White (7/8) · Haredi Public (6/8) · Amcha Yisrael (3/8)
Poll of polls · 4 Oct–9 Oct 2026
Likud22
Yashar!22
Together12
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Shas8
Joint List8
Otzma Yehudit8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Raʿam5
The Reservists2
Amcha Yisrael2
525513
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 52 and the non-Arab opposition at 55, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Poll of polls · 4 Oct–9 Oct 2026 · middle reading per party, so a house lean cannot drag it
Yashar!23
Likud21
Together13
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Joint List8
Otzma Yehudit8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Shas7
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Raʿam5
The Reservists2
Amcha Yisrael2
515613
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 51 and the non-Arab opposition at 56, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Party
MaarivLazar Research
N12Midgam
Channel 14Filber
i24NEWSDirect Polls
Times of IsraelTatika Research & Media
Israel HayomKantar
Channel 13Midgam Project et al.
Kan 11Kantar
Avg
Likud
20
21
31
26
20
21
20
21
22.5
Yashar!
21
23
23
20
24
22
20
23
22
Together
13
13
8
11
13
13
12
12
11.9
The Democrats
9
9
9
10
8
8
10
8
8.9
Yisrael Beiteinu
9
9
5
7
10
8
8
9
8.1
Joint List
7
8
7
7
9
8
9
8
7.9
UTJ
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7.9
Otzma Yehudit
8
7
8
9
6
9
8
8
7.9
Shas
7
7
10
7
8
7
7
8
7.6
Religious Zionism–Zehut
6
6
6
6
5
6
7
6
6
Raʿam
5
5
5
5
5
5
6
5
5.1
The Reservists
4
4
·
·
·
5
·
4
2.1
Amcha Yisrael
4
·
·
4
4
·
5
·
2.1
Coalition
48
49
63
56
47
51
50
51
Opposition
60
58
45
52
59
56
55
56
Arab
12
13
12
12
14
13
15
13
At the 3.25% line Blue & White (8/8) · Haredi Public (6/8) · The Reservists (4/8) · Amcha Yisrael (4/8)
Poll of polls · 27 Sept–2 Oct 2026
Likud24
Yashar!21
Together11
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Shas8
Joint List8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Otzma Yehudit7
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Raʿam5
Amcha Yisrael3
The Reservists2
535413
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 53 and the non-Arab opposition at 54, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Poll of polls · 27 Sept–2 Oct 2026 · middle reading per party, so a house lean cannot drag it
Likud21
Yashar!21
Together11
UTJ9
The Democrats9
Shas8
Otzma Yehudit8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Joint List7
Raʿam6
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Amcha Yisrael4
The Reservists2
495912
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 49 and the non-Arab opposition at 59, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Party
MaarivLazar Research
Channel 14Filber
Channel 14Filber
i24NEWSDirect Polls
Times of IsraelTatika Research & Media
Channel 13Midgam Project et al.
Kan 11Kantar
Channel 16Maagar Mochot
Avg
Likud
19
32
31
28
21
19
21
19
23.8
Yashar!
21
21
21
22
21
21
23
21
21.4
Together
13
8
9
9
10
11
11
14
10.6
The Democrats
10
9
9
9
8
11
9
9
9.3
Shas
7
10
10
7
9
7
7
8
8.1
Yisrael Beiteinu
9
6
6
7
10
9
9
7
7.9
UTJ
7
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7.6
Joint List
7
7
7
8
8
9
7
7
7.5
Otzma Yehudit
9
7
7
8
6
8
7
8
7.5
Religious Zionism–Zehut
5
7
7
5
5
7
6
6
6
Raʿam
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Amcha Yisrael
4
·
·
4
4
5
4
5
3.3
The Reservists
4
·
·
·
5
·
4
4
2.1
Coalition
47
64
63
56
49
49
48
48
Opposition
61
44
45
51
58
57
60
60
Arab
12
12
12
13
13
14
12
12
At the 3.25% line Blue & White (5/8) · Haredi Public (4/8) · The Reservists (3/8) · Amcha Yisrael (1/8)
Poll of polls · 22 Sept–25 Sept 2026
Yashar!23
Likud22
Together11
The Democrats10
Shas8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
UTJ7
Joint List7
Otzma Yehudit7
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Raʿam5
Amcha Yisrael4
The Reservists2
505713
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 50 and the non-Arab opposition at 57, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Poll of polls · 22 Sept–25 Sept 2026 · middle reading per party, so a house lean cannot drag it
Yashar!22
Likud20
Together12
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Shas8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Joint List7
Otzma Yehudit7
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Raʿam5
The Reservists4
Amcha Yisrael4
486012
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 48 and the non-Arab opposition at 60, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Party
MaarivLazar Research
N12Midgam
Channel 14Filber
i24NEWSDirect Polls
Times of IsraelTatika Research & Media
Channel 13Midgam Project et al.
Channel 16Maagar Mochot
Avg
Yashar!
22
23
22
22
23
22
23
22.4
Likud
18
20
32
27
21
18
19
22.1
Together
13
13
7
9
12
11
13
11.1
The Democrats
11
9
9
9
8
11
8
9.3
Yisrael Beiteinu
9
9
7
7
10
8
8
8.3
Shas
6
7
11
7
10
8
8
8.1
Joint List
7
7
7
7
8
8
7
7.3
UTJ
6
8
7
8
8
7
7
7.3
Otzma Yehudit
9
6
6
8
6
7
9
7.3
Religious Zionism–Zehut
6
5
7
6
4
6
5
5.6
Raʿam
5
5
5
6
6
5
5
5.3
Amcha Yisrael
4
4
·
4
4
5
4
3.6
The Reservists
4
4
·
·
·
4
4
2.3
Coalition
45
46
63
56
49
46
48
Opposition
63
62
45
51
57
61
60
Arab
12
12
12
13
14
13
12
At the 3.25% line Blue & White (6/7) · Haredi Public (5/7) · The Reservists (2/7) · Amcha Yisrael (1/7)
Poll of polls · 14 Sept–18 Sept 2026
Likud22
Yashar!22
Together12
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Shas8
Otzma Yehudit8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Joint List7
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Raʿam5
Amcha Yisrael3
The Reservists2
525612
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 52 and the non-Arab opposition at 56, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Poll of polls · 14 Sept–18 Sept 2026 · middle reading per party, so a house lean cannot drag it
Yashar!22
Likud20
Together13
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Otzma Yehudit8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Shas7
Joint List7
Raʿam6
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Amcha Yisrael4
The Reservists2
486012
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 48 and the non-Arab opposition at 60, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Party
MaarivLazar Research
N12Midgam
Channel 14Filber
Channel 14Filber
i24NEWSDirect Polls
Times of IsraelTatika Research & Media
Israel HayomKantar
Channel 13Midgam Project et al.
Kan 11Kantar
Channel 16Maagar Mochot
Avg
Likud
18
20
31
30
27
22
20
18
20
18
22.4
Yashar!
23
23
20
21
21
24
22
22
24
21
22.1
Together
13
13
9
8
9
14
13
12
12
16
11.9
The Democrats
9
10
8
9
10
8
9
10
8
9
9
Shas
7
7
10
10
7
9
7
7
7
9
8
Yisrael Beiteinu
9
8
7
6
8
9
8
8
8
7
7.8
Otzma Yehudit
8
6
8
8
7
7
8
8
8
9
7.7
UTJ
7
8
8
8
8
9
7
7
7
7
7.6
Joint List
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
6
7.2
Religious Zionism–Zehut
6
5
7
8
6
4
6
8
6
5
6.1
Raʿam
5
4
5
5
5
6
5
6
5
5
5.1
Amcha Yisrael
4
4
·
·
5
·
4
6
4
4
3.1
The Reservists
4
4
·
·
·
·
4
·
4
4
2
Coalition
46
46
64
64
55
51
48
48
48
48
Opposition
62
62
44
44
53
55
60
58
60
61
Arab
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
14
12
11
At the 3.25% line Blue & White (7/10) · Haredi Public (5/10) · The Reservists (4/10) · Amcha Yisrael (2/10)
Poll of polls · 6 Sept–11 Sept 2026
Likud23
Yashar!23
Together12
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Shas8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Joint List7
Otzma Yehudit7
Religious Zionism–Zehut6
Raʿam5
Amcha Yisrael3
The Reservists1
515712
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 51 and the non-Arab opposition at 57, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Poll of polls · 6 Sept–11 Sept 2026 · middle reading per party, so a house lean cannot drag it
Yashar!23
Likud21
Together13
UTJ9
The Democrats9
Otzma Yehudit8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Shas7
Joint List7
Raʿam6
Religious Zionism–Zehut5
Amcha Yisrael4
486012
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 48 and the non-Arab opposition at 60, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Party
MaarivLazar Research
MaarivLazar Research
N12Midgam
N12Midgam
Channel 14Filber
Channel 14Filber
i24NEWSDirect Polls
Times of IsraelTatika Research & Media
Channel 13Midgam Project et al.
Kan 11Kantar
Kan 11Kantar
Channel 16Maagar Mochot
WallaLazar Research
Avg
Yashar!
25
25
25
25
22
22
22
23
22
24
23
23
25
23.5
Likud
19
20
21
21
31
30
27
23
19
21
20
20
21
22.5
Together
14
13
13
13
7
6
10
15
13
12
13
16
14
12.2
The Democrats
10
10
10
11
8
10
9
8
10
9
8
9
9
9.3
Yisrael Beiteinu
9
9
9
8
7
6
7
10
8
7
7
7
9
7.9
Shas
7
7
7
7
10
10
7
10
7
7
7
9
7
7.8
UTJ
7
7
8
8
7
7
8
9
8
8
8
7
7
7.6
Otzma Yehudit
8
8
6
6
8
8
8
6
9
7
7
9
7
7.5
Joint List
7
7
7
7
6
8
7
7
8
7
7
7
7
7.1
Religious Zionism–Zehut
5
5
5
6
8
8
6
4
6
5
6
4
5
5.6
Raʿam
5
5
4
4
6
5
5
5
6
5
6
5
5
5.1
Amcha Yisrael
4
·
5
4
·
·
4
·
4
4
4
4
4
2.8
The Reservists
·
4
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
4
4
·
·
0.9
Coalition
46
47
47
48
64
63
56
52
49
48
48
49
47
Opposition
62
61
62
61
44
44
52
56
57
60
59
59
61
Arab
12
12
11
11
12
13
12
12
14
12
13
12
12
At the 3.25% line Blue & White (9/13) · The Reservists (8/13) · Haredi Public (8/13) · Amcha Yisrael (3/13)
Poll of polls · 30 Aug–4 Sept 2026
Likud23
Yashar!23
Together13
The Democrats10
UTJ8
Shas8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Joint List7
Otzma Yehudit7
Raʿam5
Religious Zionism–Zehut5
Amcha Yisrael3
515712
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 51 and the non-Arab opposition at 57, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Poll of polls · 30 Aug–4 Sept 2026 · middle reading per party, so a house lean cannot drag it
Yashar!24
Likud22
Together14
The Democrats9
UTJ8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
Shas7
Joint List7
Otzma Yehudit7
Raʿam5
Religious Zionism–Zehut5
Amcha Yisrael4
495912
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 49 and the non-Arab opposition at 59, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Party
MaarivLazar Research
N12Midgam
Channel 14Filber
Channel 14Filber
Times of IsraelTatika Research & Media
Israel HayomKantar
Channel 13Midgam Project et al.
Kan 11Kantar
Channel 16Maagar Mochot
WallaLazar Research
Avg
Likud
20
23
31
31
22
21
21
21
19
22
23.1
Yashar!
23
24
22
24
22
24
22
24
20
24
22.9
Together
15
15
9
6
15
13
12
14
18
15
13.2
The Democrats
10
11
8
8
8
9
11
9
10
10
9.4
Yisrael Beiteinu
9
9
6
7
10
9
8
8
7
9
8.2
Shas
7
7
10
10
9
7
7
7
9
7
8
UTJ
7
8
8
7
8
8
8
8
7
8
7.7
Joint List
7
7
7
7
6
7
9
8
7
8
7.3
Otzma Yehudit
8
8
7
7
6
7
7
7
9
7
7.3
Raʿam
5
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
4.8
Religious Zionism–Zehut
5
·
7
4
5
6
6
5
5
5
4.8
Amcha Yisrael
4
4
·
4
·
4
4
4
5
·
2.9
The Reservists
·
·
·
·
4
·
·
·
·
·
0.4
Coalition
47
46
63
59
50
49
49
48
49
49
Opposition
61
63
45
49
59
59
57
59
60
58
Arab
12
11
12
12
11
12
14
13
11
13
At the 3.25% line Blue & White (9/10) · Unity (9/10) · The Reservists (8/10) · Amcha Yisrael (3/10) · Zehut (2/10) · Religious Zionism–Zehut (1/10)
Poll of polls · 23 Aug–28 Aug 2026
Likud24
Yashar!24
Together12
The Democrats10
Shas8
Otzma Yehudit8
Yisrael Beiteinu8
UTJ7
Joint List7
Raʿam5
Amcha Yisrael4
Religious Zionism–Zehut3
505812
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 50 and the non-Arab opposition at 58, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Poll of polls · 23 Aug–28 Aug 2026 · middle reading per party, so a house lean cannot drag it
Yashar!24
Likud22
Together14
The Democrats10
Yisrael Beiteinu9
UTJ8
Shas8
Otzma Yehudit8
Joint List7
Raʿam5
Amcha Yisrael4
Religious Zionism–Zehut4
495912
CoalitionChangeArab
61 needed to govern. The coalition sits at 49 and the non-Arab opposition at 59, so on these numbers neither bloc can form a government without the Arab parties.
Party
MaarivLazar Research
N12Midgam
Channel 14Filber
Channel 14Filber
i24NEWSDirect Polls
Times of IsraelTatika Research & Media
Channel 13Midgam Project et al.
Kan 11Kantar
Channel 16Maagar Mochot
WallaLazar Research
Avg
Yashar!
25
24
23
24
23
26
24
24
21
25
23.9
Likud
20
22
31
32
26
22
19
22
21
21
23.6
Together
15
15
7
7
8
14
13
14
16
15
12.4
The Democrats
10
11
9
9
10
8
11
10
11
10
9.9
Yisrael Beiteinu
9
9
6
7
8
10
9
9
8
9
8.4
Shas
7
7
10
10
8
9
8
7
9
7
8.2
Otzma Yehudit
8
9
7
8
6
6
8
9
9
8
7.8
UTJ
8
8
7
8
7
8
8
8
7
7
7.6
Joint List
8
7
7
5
6
6
10
7
7
7
7
Raʿam
5
4
5
5
6
5
5
5
4
5
4.9
Amcha Yisrael
5
·
4
·
8
6
·
·
7
6
3.6
Religious Zionism–Zehut
·
4
4
5
4
·
5
5
·
·
2.7
Coalition
43
50
59
63
51
45
48
51
46
43
Opposition
64
59
49
47
57
64
57
57
63
65
Arab
13
11
12
10
12
11
15
12
11
12
At the 3.25% line Blue & White (9/10) · The Reservists (9/10) · Unity (9/10) · Religious Zionism–Zehut (4/10) · Zehut (4/10) · Amcha Yisrael (3/10)
Since the previous wave Likud 22→20
Seeded from each outlet’s published seat projection. Tap to load a poll into the sandbox and build coalitions on it. Polls are snapshots, not predictions.
The campaign so far
The race, poll by poll
Each line is the polling average with every pollster’s steady lean taken out, counted into seats under the real rules: the 3.25% threshold and the five surplus-vote agreements.
The coalition bloc against 61Seats the average wins each day. Coalition: Likud, Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, RZP–Zehut.
CoalitionChangeArab
Every list against the thresholdShare of the vote. Line: the adjusted average. Dots: single polls. Dashed: 3.25%.
The three largest
Yashar!16.9% · 22 seats
Likud16.8% · 22 seats
Together9.0% · 11 seats
The rest, on a closer scale
The Democrats7.3% · 9 seats
Joint List6.5% · 8 seats
Otzma Yehudit6.5% · 8 seats
UTJ6.4% · 8 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu6.4% · 8 seats
Shas6.3% · 8 seats
Religious Zionism–Zehut5.0% · 6 seats
Raʿam4.4% · 6 seats
The Reservists3.3% · 4 seats
Amcha Yisrael3.2% · 0 seats
Blue & White1.1% · 0 seats
Haredi Public0.7% · 0 seats
How each pollster leansSeats a pollster gives each list above (+) or below (−) the all-pollster average, over the campaign so far. The reference point is an assumption: the average pollster is taken to be unbiased.