How the government formed
Israeli election simulator
The Knesset Machine
Four real elections and a sandbox. Drag the vote, watch 120 seats fall, and try to build 61. Positions are live from Tayyar.
—largest party
0right + religious
0the rest
Load a scenario
The ballot
← Arab · leftreligious right →
61
0 / 120 in your coalition
The President consults
Who gets the mandate?
—formateur
0 / 61committed seats
42 mandate days left
Around the table
Portfolio demands, red lines, and the 28 + 14-day clock are a stylized, illustrative model of how the blocs bargain, not the official positions of any party or the President.
Probabilistic forecast · beta
If the election were today
Set each list’s expected vote, then run thousands of elections. Each is shaken by three correlated forces, a national left-right swing, a religious-secular swing, and Arab turnout, with each list’s exposure read from its own Tayyar positions, plus its own noise. For every simulated Knesset the machine asks who could really form 61 under the real coalition red lines, and how often each list is the one that decides.
✓ Calibrated on 63 final-week polls (2019–2022) · replayed on those four elections, the result fell inside its 5–95% band for 41 of 42 lists
0 elections simulated
Who can actually form a government?
Kingmakers · how often each list is decisive to a majority
Seats per list (median, with the 5th–95th-percentile range)
No polls on this page until the vote closes
Israeli law bars publishing election polls in the last days before the vote, until polling stations close at 22:00 on Tuesday 27 October. Until then the poll panel and the campaign charts are off this page, and the 2026 sandbox starts from the 2022 vote. Both come back at 22:00.